Every half-decade or so, Justin Bieber sloughs off the callused skin of the pop superstar he became at age 15 to reveal the tender and quirky R&B singer he’s always been at heart. He did it in 2013 with his album “Journals,” then in 2020 with “Changes.”

Those estimates would yield a respectable debut, particularly given that Swag’s week one numbers likely won’t include any physical sales. Justice, Bieber’s next-most-recent album, debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard chart back in 2021 with 154,000 equivalent units, including 30,000 physical sales.

Justin Bieber's surprise 'Swag' album marks his first release in four years, and the most creative and wide-ranging music of his life