Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth responded to allegations that he shared details of an airstrike against Iran-backed Houthis in a second Signal chat that included his wife and brother.

If the first leak was a lapse, the second looks like a pattern. And patterns — especially those that risk lives — are rarely tolerated long in Washington, even in a Trump-led administration where loyalty often trumps protocol.

As of Monday afternoon, Polymarket, one of the leading prediction markets, said there is a 32% chance that Trump will fire Hegseth by July. This comes just hours after NPR reported that the White House is looking to replace Hegseth as the defense secretary.