Pete Hegseth was barely able to get confirmed as Donald Trump’s Defense secretary, and following a series of scandals — including the revelation that he shared U.S. war plans in a second Signal group chat last month — it appears increasingly likely that he’ll be the first member of Trump’s cabinet to either resign or be forced out not even 100 days into Trump’s second term.

Officials say the unraveling of Hegseth’s inner circle is cause for alarm, leaving some to wonder how the Pentagon would function in a national security crisis.

As of Monday afternoon, Polymarket, one of the leading prediction markets, said there is a 32% chance that Trump will fire Hegseth by July. This comes just hours after NPR reported that the White House is looking to replace Hegseth as the defense secretary.