As of now, “Anora” is the clear frontrunner thanks to wins with the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild — both prizes with a long history of predicting Oscar winners. Where the Screen Actors Guild and the BAFTAs fall will offer the last major clues.

Distributor NEON has won Best Picture before with Parasite, shedding the narrative that a film not in the English language can’t win the Oscars’ top honor. Anora hearkens back to the glories of New Hollywood, a time where more risqué subject matter was widely embraced by the Academy voters as conduit for commentary on the times.

Within 24 hours, "Anora" surged to the front of the Oscar pack, with the Palme d'Or winner earning the top prizes at the PGA and DGA Awards 2025.