Private economists polled weekly by Brazil's central bank trimmed their 2026 inflation outlook for the first time in over two months, according to a survey released on Monday, in a welcome development for the central bank.

Official data to be published on Tuesday will likely show inflation ran at a 0.33% monthly rate and 5.40% in the 12 months to May, according to median estimates of 19 economists polled June 4-9.

The latest federal data show the CPI increasing 2.7% over the previous 12 months, outpacing the 2.4% May figure and raising questions around the impact of trade uncertainty.

Brazil's economic growth will stay on track despite the imposition of U.S. tariffs, according to a Reuters poll of economists, but inflation appears at greater risk of worsening if trade negotiations flounder.

GDP growth in Brazil has been remarkably resilient over the past three years and, as expected, is showing signs of moderation. The expansion has reflected strong consumption supported by fiscal stimulus on the demand side,

Gross domestic product (GDP) is now seen expanding 2.4% in 2025, up from the 2.3% seen in March, while the 2026 forecast was kept at 2.5%. Meanwhile, consumer prices are expected to rise 5.0% this ...

Brazil's government maintains 2025 GDP forecast, sees higher inflation By Reuters March 19, 20255:48 AM PDTUpdated March 19, 2025

Bearing in mind that the Brazilian Central Bank's target for annual inflation is 3% (with a 1.5% tolerance), Brazil has seen its inflation rise from 3.7% in April 2024 to currently 5%, exceeding ...

With Brazilian inflation now above the target rate, in mid-April the central bank announced a rise in interest rates for the first time since July 2011. But the move, in the face of stubborn and diffuse pressure (over 70% of the country’s inflation basket is now affected by inflation) was dovish – just a 25 basis point increase in the face of the market expectations of 50bp. The minutes ...